Credit Solutions Market Overview

Insolvencies Increase but Trade Credit Insurance Support Remains Strong

Despite business insolvencies predicted to exceed pre-pandemic levels in many countries during 2024 – due to tighter credit conditions brought about by higher interest rates and a slowdown in economic growth especially in the construction, retail, and transportation sectors – the largest trade credit insurers continue to support trade.

Trade Credit insurers have performed well over the previous periods. Based on high levels of business retention and new business activity, revenues for the largest carriers increased between 4 and 9 percent , with also overall lower-than-expected claims. Other market participants reported double-digit growth however, and although these insurers have a lower premium base, it illustrates a rise in demand for capacity and the broader market’s ability to support innovative credit solutions.

“We can say we kept our appetite as insurers at a very stable level even during the COVID crisis,” said Atradius’ Andreas Tesch, Chief Market Officer. “I think the last couple of years have proven that the trade credit industry is resilient and is providing stable coverage despite crises like COVID, the Ukraine war and Gaza.”

But what does the picture look like for the rest of 2024 and into 2025?

Claims Notifications Rise

While claims severity has been below average historic levels, it now appears that the tide is turning, evidenced by an increased frequency of potential loss notifications, as the market cycle continues to normalise. Insurers’ loss ratios have risen recently and are subject to varying loss reserving policies though. After the COVID years, they now appear to be reverting towards historic levels. Combined ratios from the largest carriers are between 67 and 82 percent , again normalizing towards long-term averages.

In terms of the impact these conditions are having on premiums, the premium rate change for Q1 2024 renewals was flat to soft driven by competition for both new and renewal business, with overall decreases of about 1.5 to 2 percent. It’s likely that these conditions will continue in the short-term in the absence of any unforeseen events, and markets will remain competitive for insureds, dependent on their risk profile and loss experience.

Insurance Capacity Remains Strong

Trade credit insurance capacity remains at an all time high, having increased by 25 percent since 2019 but growth slowed during 2023 reflecting flat economic activity, lower levels of inflation, and more stability in commodity prices. This stabilization of exposure of the three largest carriers is expected to continue throughout 2024. In turn, carriers continue to report high levels of risk acceptance at approximately 75 percent and remain broadly supportive but with some industry selectivity, particularly on the retail and construction sectors. “At the beginning of last year, the trade credit industry faced one of the largest claims ever on one of the Brazilian retailers. We’ve seen a number of construction companies failing in 2023 and also retail in other countries due to structural changes…such as the move to ecommerce,” said Tesch.

Uncertainty Ahead but Insurers Remain Positive

Economic uncertainty linked to weak global growth and heightened geopolitical risks, together with supply chain disruption, may in turn lead to increased aggregate capacity requirement and insurers’ acceptance rates changing. Carriers may see the persistent uncertainty continue to influence their overall appetite and approach to sectoral/specific risks. But despite these conditions, insurers remain positive.

“The level of uncertainty and the complexity has been at the highest level for at least the last decade,” said Nicolas Garcia, Group Commercial Director at Coface. “The tensions on the macro-economic and the political sides are huge.” But it’s a challenge that the industry is equal to, Garcia added. “We have proven ourselves over recent years, particularly if you consider the number of crises over the last four years and the resilience and intelligence we have been able to bring for our clients.”

¹ Insurer results are based on 2019-23 company financial reporting, available industry information and Aon data
² Allianz, Coface and Grupo Catalana Occidente annual report

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